Tag: existential risk
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How well can we actually predict the future? Katja Grace on why expert opinion isn’t a great guide to AI’s impact and how to do better – 80,000 Hours
Experts believe that artificial intelligence will be better than humans at driving trucks by 2027, working in retail by 2031, writing bestselling books by 2049, and working as surgeons by 2053. But how seriously should we take these predictions? Katja Grace, lead author of ‘When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?’, thinks we should treat such…